{"channel":"misc","content":"<xantham> it's only February ...\n\n<red> yes, but in what year?\n\ntoday i am looking for a different kind of joy.\u2002not food nor drink (or drink).\u2002not sex nor drugs.\u2002not intellectual activity nor physical activity.\n\nand not the joy of an old man, resting on his laurels, content to sit and watch as the world passes him by.\n\n<mogue> spins the wheel of topics, and finds ...\n\nIt's official: prediction markets have been tried, and are a failed idea.\n\nUnfortunately, the reasons they are failed cannot be broadcast.\u2002So I must lament from afar.\n\n--MORE--\n\nTo start with, they can't break EMBARGO.\n\n<orange> well, actually, they can break EMBARGO.\u2002but they will be punished for doing so.\n\nThey are, also, predictably wrong.\u2002For a few main reasons.\n\nThey simply don't work for predicting events with a 1% chance.\u2002The monetary incentives don't work.\n\nThe monetary incentives don't work for 50-50 events, either.\u2002The \"profits\" meant to encourage participation come from other participants, who will filter out.\u2002Soon, it is a game of \"who can beat the suckers\", not \"who can create correct predictions\".\n\nThey don't ask the right questions.\u2002This is, partially, a way to maintain EMBARGO compliance.\n\nWhat you are left with ... is an unregulated sports book.\u2002With attractive nuisance markets on politics and global affairs that are broken-by-default.\n\nAnd a lot of trolling.\u2002Which shalt not be repeated here.","created_at":"2024-02-03T17:21:20","id":449,"llm_annotations":{},"parent_id":null,"processed_content":"<p><span class=\"colorblock color-xantham\">\n    <span class=\"sigil\">\ud83d\udd25</span>\n    <span class=\"colortext-content\"> it's only February ...</span>\n  </span></p>\n<p><span class=\"colorblock color-red\">\n    <span class=\"sigil\">\ud83d\udca1</span>\n    <span class=\"colortext-content\"> yes, but in what year?</span>\n  </span></p>\n<p>today i am looking for a different kind of joy.\u2002not food nor drink (or drink).\u2002not sex nor drugs.\u2002not intellectual activity nor physical activity.</p>\n<p>and not the joy of an old man, resting on his laurels, content to sit and watch as the world passes him by.</p>\n<p><span class=\"colorblock color-mogue\">\n    <span class=\"sigil\">\ud83c\udf0e</span>\n    <span class=\"colortext-content\"> spins the wheel of topics, and finds ...</span>\n  </span></p>\n<p>It's official: prediction markets have been tried, and are a failed idea.</p>\n<p>Unfortunately, the reasons they are failed cannot be broadcast.\u2002So I must lament from afar.</p> <hr class=\"section-break\" /> <p class=\"readmore\">Read More ...</p> <hr class=\"section-break\" /> <p>To start with, they can't break EMBARGO.</p>\n<p><span class=\"colorblock color-orange\">\n    <span class=\"sigil\">\u2694\ufe0f</span>\n    <span class=\"colortext-content\"> well, actually, they can break EMBARGO.\u2002but they will be punished for doing so.</span>\n  </span></p>\n<p>They are, also, predictably wrong.\u2002For a few main reasons.</p>\n<p>They simply don't work for predicting events with a 1% chance.\u2002The monetary incentives don't work.</p>\n<p>The monetary incentives don't work for 50-50 events, either.\u2002The \"profits\" meant to encourage participation come from other participants, who will filter out.\u2002Soon, it is a game of \"who can beat the suckers\", not \"who can create correct predictions\".</p>\n<p>They don't ask the right questions.\u2002This is, partially, a way to maintain EMBARGO compliance.</p>\n<p>What you are left with ... is an unregulated sports book.\u2002With attractive nuisance markets on politics and global affairs that are broken-by-default.</p>\n<p>And a lot of trolling.\u2002Which shalt not be repeated here.</p>","quotes":[],"subject":"letters to LONDON, 2024-FEB"}