{"channel":"misc","content":" <<< Never trust any Substack with a black background. >>>\r\n\r\nhttps://www.campbellramble.ai/p/china-cant-win\r\n\r\nThe take is ... delusionally bad. He starts with the thesis \"China is losing and Trump is great\", and twists the facts to fit it. ( the fact that America is doing this type of thing more and more is another reason to bet against it) ( also, the comments point out that the dozens of \"it's not just X, it's Y\" show that most of this went through ChatGPT ... and probably has all the accuracy issues from using it wrong.)\r\n\r\nThe major flaws are:\r\n# He claims that the fact that China owns \"physical\" assets and America owns \"financial\" assets is a major point in favor of America. This could not be further from the truth. Owning a copper mine is always going to be better than owning << derivative swaps >> in a time of crisis.\r\n# He ludicrously over-weights China's \"dependencies\" and ignores Americas. He says China buying American soybeans is a key weakness ... right after China's ability to stop buying those soybeans overnight has caused an American farm crisis. He thinks China needs \"American films\" for some reason ... and also thinks that the US could plausibly stop China from getting them. And he says that Chinese manufacturing exports could be replaced within 10 years after only causing an \"annoyance\".\r\n# He talks repeatedly about how the US can << print money >> to solve problems, but presumes that China can't. The post-COVID Biden-flation proves the US *can't* just print money.\r\n# His point of \"China is going to be weak and the US won't be because China will have leaders over 75\" is absurd, after the past decade of geriatric American presidents.\r\n# His theory of a \"cold war\" with China is also delusional. Chinese provinces withholding tax revenue! ( this is a risk in Blue States in the federalized USA, not in a China where the provincial and national leadership is indistinguishable) Mass unemployment! ( no country has ever suffered from unemployment in the midst of an existential war) And a bunch of nonsense currency-rate concerns. ( if there is a \"full embargo\" on China, IT DOESN'T MATTER what the \"conversion rate\" is.)","created_at":"2025-10-26T19:49:29.322021","id":694,"llm_annotations":{},"parent_id":null,"processed_content":"

Never trust any Substack with a black background.

\n

https://www.campbellramble.ai/p/china-cant-win\r

\n

The take is ... delusionally bad. He starts with the thesis \"China is losing and Trump is great\", and twists the facts to fit it. \ud83d\udca1 the fact that America is doing this type of thing more and more is another reason to bet against it \ud83d\udd25 also, the comments point out that the dozens of \"it's not just X, it's Y\" show that most of this went through ChatGPT ... and probably has all the accuracy issues from using it wrong.\r

\n

The major flaws are:\r

\n
    \n
  • He claims that the fact that China owns \"physical\" assets and America owns \"financial\" assets is a major point in favor of America. This could not be further from the truth. Owning a copper mine is always going to be better than owning derivative swaps in a time of crisis.\r
    • \n
  • He ludicrously over-weights China's \"dependencies\" and ignores Americas. He says China buying American soybeans is a key weakness ... right after China's ability to stop buying those soybeans overnight has caused an American farm crisis. He thinks China needs \"American films\" for some reason ... and also thinks that the US could plausibly stop China from getting them. And he says that Chinese manufacturing exports could be replaced within 10 years after only causing an \"annoyance\".\r
    • \n
  • He talks repeatedly about how the US can print money to solve problems, but presumes that China can't. The post-COVID Biden-flation proves the US can't just print money.\r
    • \n
  • His point of \"China is going to be weak and the US won't be because China will have leaders over 75\" is absurd, after the past decade of geriatric American presidents.\r
    • \n
  • His theory of a \"cold war\" with China is also delusional. Chinese provinces withholding tax revenue! \ud83d\udca1 this is a risk in Blue States in the federalized USA, not in a China where the provincial and national leadership is indistinguishable Mass unemployment! \ud83d\udd25 no country has ever suffered from unemployment in the midst of an existential war And a bunch of nonsense currency-rate concerns. \ud83d\udca1 if there is a \"full embargo\" on China, IT DOESN'T MATTER what the \"conversion rate\" is.
    • \n
","quotes":[],"subject":"a bad take on US conflict with China"}