minnewaukan, part 1 Cities
2025-12-19 20:38:40

A key distinction in language learning is between ambiguity that exists at the word level versus information that simply isn't encoded in the source language at all. Many words appear ambiguous in isolation but become clear in actual sentences through grammar and context. For example, "lay" might seem confusing as an isolated word, but "I lay the book down" versus "I lay on the bed yesterday" are perfectly clear from sentence structure. Similarly, "certain" in isolation could mean multiple things, but "I am certain" versus "a certain person" are unambiguous in context. These cases require only reading comprehension skills - the information needed for translation is present in the sentence itself.

The genuine challenge arises when the source language fundamentally doesn't encode distinctions that the target language requires. English "my brother" provides no information about whether the sibling is older or younger, yet Chinese requires choosing between 哥哥 or 弟弟. English "he's gone" doesn't specify whether someone stepped out briefly or departed on a journey, yet Lithuanian distinguishes išėjęs from išvykęs. In these cases, the sentence itself - no matter how carefully analyzed - doesn't contain the information needed for translation. The learner needs either additional context beyond the sentence or real-world knowledge about the situation being described. This is the crucial teaching challenge: helping learners recognize when they must specify information that their native language leaves implicit.

git checkout main Tech
2025-12-03 15:17:22

⚙️ https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/give-up-seventy-percent-of-the-way

I have decided to give up on calling branches "master" in Github. 💭 it was political at one point, the reference to "master" seemed like a slavery term. 💡 today, main is preferred. it is shorter, it fits a flow of development -> main -> release better archetypically, and it is the current default

💭 the past is a foreign country. the question is no longer "does your text editor handle emoji". we let the KEYBOARD handle this ... ⚙️ if you go further back, you get issues about typing Cyrillic - is it a font?

thoughts on algorithmic discovery Tech
2025-12-03 15:10:25

Seen on LinkedIn:

Lately I’ve been thinking a lot about discovery — and how strange it is that, in a world overflowing with information, it’s still so hard to find the things that actually matter to us.

My For You page on Instagram is 90% irrelevant.

My grocery apps never surface the products I’d actually be most interested in.

My redemption apps only show me enterprise brands which I typically am opting out of buying.

Even with all the data in the world, most “recommendations” feel like guesses, not guidance.

...

It reminded me that discovery isn’t necessarily an algorithmic problem — it’s a human one that can be tapped into through technology.

As we head into 2026, I cannot wait to introduce you to how we’re shaping and scaling what I’m calling “delightful discovery” — where we make discovery of consumer brands something people actually want to experience.

Every time I look at the "Facebook Reels" that it insists on putting into my feed, I marvel at how bad they are. Much of the time, they aren't a reel at all, they are a story which is both fake and click-bait. For example: My sister refused to come to my wedding, which shocked me until I found out that ...

The punch-line isn't in the video at all. ⚙️ it's not really a video, it's some text over a slightly-moving background. Instead, you have to click a link.

Is this emergent behavior as a result of hacking the algorithm? These shit-posts get enough traction from a certain type of user that they are considered "better", and crowd other content out?

Or does Facebook just not care about the quality of the content here?

What do people want to discover? 🔥 what do you want people to discover? 💡 that which makes you rich? 💡 that which benefits them? 💡 that which leads to the glory of LONDON? 💡 how much time should a person spend on their phones? ⚙️ phones, or screens? ⚙️ is this primary or secondary time?

Zvi Mowshowitz doesn't understand markets LLM
2025-11-24 14:54:32

🔥 among other things.

From Zvi's latest novel-length blog post ⚙️ https://thezvi.substack.com/p/gemini-3-pro-is-a-vast-intelligence :

The Efficient Market Hypothesis Is False

The stock market initially was unimpressed by the release of Gemini 3 Pro.

This seemed like a mistake. The next day there was a large overnight bump and Google finished up 2.8%, which seems like the minimum, and then the next day Google outperformed again, potentially confounded by Nana Banana Pro of all things, then there was more ups and downs, none of which appears to have been on any other substantive news. The mainstream media story seems to be that this the Google and other stock movements around AI are about rising or falling concerns about AI bubbles or something.

The mainstream doesn’t get how much the quality of Gemini 3 Pro matters.

Except ... Zvi goes on to describe a model that, by all of my estimations, is below expectations. It is paranoid about "simulated data" to the degree that it doesn't believe it is 2025 yet. It is over-fit for benchmarks. It is over-fit for evaluator sycophancy. The takes about it being "great at programming" largely describe things Claude has done for months ⚙️ I have not yet used Gemini 3 ... and I probably won't this week.

When Zvi describes the model with Hallucinations, broadly construed, are the central problem with Gemini 3 Pro, in a way we haven’t had to worry about them for a while., I don't really want to even test it.

Also, this is definitely an "evolutionary" step - there are no new paradigms, no ways to increase context by 20x, nothing other than "we re-ran the same old system with more data, more GPU-hours, and a few algorithm fixes from the last 3 months of feedback".

And ... even if this were the best model in the world, surprisingly better than everything else, with new techniques that improve performance ... there is no reason to believe that the advantage would last more than six months, or that Google would generate any additional revenue as a result of the model.

So:

  • It's not a good model.
  • The Efficient Market Hypothesis would have priced in a better model already.
  • Even if it were a better model, it wouldn't generate meaningful future profits.

🔥 when Zvi is wrong about markets, and wrong about "is this AI model any good", it makes me question whether he is right about anything else.

⚔️ well, actually, the sheer volume of "links to decent content" is why I read him, not because I thought his own opinions were good before.

white shield (part 4) Atacama
2025-11-13 22:00:47

The great refactor has begun.

It makes sense to do it with the CLAUDE.md write.

What seas will this ship sail to next?

white shield (part 3) Atacama
2025-11-13 21:03:08

we still need a "reply-to" button.

Claude is writing the README for the files.

This means that we might achieve a Project Milestone. The ability to require all changes relate to a change to the README file. ⚙️ This refers to the fact that we are operating on a "comments only" approach to the written React / Swift code. 🔥 all edit requests must be phrased in the form of a question.

I no longer write code. I only write the instructions to write the code.

Once a code base is mature enough, this becomes a reality.

But, initially, the goalposts are too remote.

white shield (part 2) Atacama
2025-11-13 20:52:08

⚙️ it would be great to have a useful "reply-to" button.

Is it feasible to adopt a policy where ALL code must be written by an LLM?

I think the answer is yes. 💡 but, it is not yet possible to adopt a policy where humans cannot read the code.

does this mean that the Trakaido stats server can finally be moved out of the Atacama repo?

⚙️ a mis-matched parenthesis will make the block-quote not render. I'm not sure if this is a bug or a feature.

✨ trust not in those who do not proof their posts.

white shield (part 1) Atacama
2025-11-13 20:46:50

💭 I find that I script out an entire conversation, sometimes returning the interesting parts before the other person is ready to receive them.

💡 that is: she says her entire side of the conversation before you get a chance to talk.

🔥 this is how i do my emails.

⚙️ Claude is writing the README files for the React and Swift apps.  This means we are about to launch.

💭 My findings have been, that a policy of only LLM-written code is possible today.

✨ It is the equivalent of a system where the human only writes the comments; the actual code is written by the machine.

💡 where the boundaries between code and comment are, remains unclear.

🔥 trust not in those who work in PHP.

💡 However: systems where one cannot READ the code are beyond our current ability.  Humans are better at debugging problems on production-size codebases.

🔥 give it three years, tops.

How does the Atacama project interact with the production efforts of Yevaud Platforms LLC?

a bad take on US conflict with China Miscellany
2025-10-26 19:49:29

Never trust any Substack with a black background.

https://www.campbellramble.ai/p/china-cant-win

The take is ... delusionally bad. He starts with the thesis "China is losing and Trump is great", and twists the facts to fit it. 💡 the fact that America is doing this type of thing more and more is another reason to bet against it 🔥 also, the comments point out that the dozens of "it's not just X, it's Y" show that most of this went through ChatGPT ... and probably has all the accuracy issues from using it wrong.

The major flaws are:

  • He claims that the fact that China owns "physical" assets and America owns "financial" assets is a major point in favor of America. This could not be further from the truth. Owning a copper mine is always going to be better than owning derivative swaps in a time of crisis.
  • He ludicrously over-weights China's "dependencies" and ignores Americas. He says China buying American soybeans is a key weakness ... right after China's ability to stop buying those soybeans overnight has caused an American farm crisis. He thinks China needs "American films" for some reason ... and also thinks that the US could plausibly stop China from getting them. And he says that Chinese manufacturing exports could be replaced within 10 years after only causing an "annoyance".
  • He talks repeatedly about how the US can print money to solve problems, but presumes that China can't. The post-COVID Biden-flation proves the US can't just print money.
  • His point of "China is going to be weak and the US won't be because China will have leaders over 75" is absurd, after the past decade of geriatric American presidents.
  • His theory of a "cold war" with China is also delusional. Chinese provinces withholding tax revenue! 💡 this is a risk in Blue States in the federalized USA, not in a China where the provincial and national leadership is indistinguishable Mass unemployment! 🔥 no country has ever suffered from unemployment in the midst of an existential war And a bunch of nonsense currency-rate concerns. 💡 if there is a "full embargo" on China, IT DOESN'T MATTER what the "conversion rate" is.
three types of errors Miscellany
2025-10-23 14:43:34

I have noticed three types of errors I make in using Trakaido (to learn Lithuanian).

  • I simply don't know, and I know that. For example, how do you type the translation of "smart phone" ⚙️ išmanusis telefonas? I would not expect to get that right.
  • I misremember. For example, "ji miegojo" v. "ji mėgo" - she slept v. she drank.
  • I am just careless, and click the wrong answer despite knowing the right one.

My rule-of-thumb is: after the first type-3 error (carelessness), stop studying for at least 15 minutes

Show Older Messages