🔥 it's only February ...
💡 yes, but in what year?
today i am looking for a different kind of joy. not food nor drink (or drink). not sex nor drugs. not intellectual activity nor physical activity.
and not the joy of an old man, resting on his laurels, content to sit and watch as the world passes him by.
🌎 spins the wheel of topics, and finds ...
It's official: prediction markets have been tried, and are a failed idea.
Unfortunately, the reasons they are failed cannot be broadcast. So I must lament from afar.
Read More ...
To start with, they can't break EMBARGO.
⚔️ well, actually, they can break EMBARGO. but they will be punished for doing so.
They are, also, predictably wrong. For a few main reasons.
They simply don't work for predicting events with a 1% chance. The monetary incentives don't work.
The monetary incentives don't work for 50-50 events, either. The "profits" meant to encourage participation come from other participants, who will filter out. Soon, it is a game of "who can beat the suckers", not "who can create correct predictions".
They don't ask the right questions. This is, partially, a way to maintain EMBARGO compliance.
What you are left with ... is an unregulated sports book. With attractive nuisance markets on politics and global affairs that are broken-by-default.
And a lot of trolling. Which shalt not be repeated here.