I'm°hard word not°hard word doing°hard word a March Madness°hard word bracket°hard word this year.
✨ one can only predict the future so much. best not°hard word to waste the gift on popular°hard word frivolities°hard word.
but: some notes from last year.
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When filling out a bracket°hard word, it is important to realize one's°hard word goals°hard word. Is it:
- to win the group
- to get the best individual°hard word score°hard word
- to make picks that allow one to gloat°hard word to one's°hard word friends
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To win a bracket°hard word, the key is to correctly pick the national°hard word champion°hard word. If it is a team that nobody else in the group has picked, you will probably win even if the rest of your°hard word bracket°hard word is average°hard word.
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for other picks, the rule of "take the better seed (that is, the 1 seed, or then°hard word the 2 seed, etc°hard word.)" is a good starting point.
- it's°hard word no fun°hard word to take all the favorites
- very roughly: games with up to 3 seed difference°hard word (aka°hard word 7-10) are coin-flips°hard word; games with up to 8 seed differential°hard word (aka°hard word 5-12 or 1-8) are 80% favorites for the higher seed
- there will probably be one or two top-4 seeds that lose in the first round. trying to pick these is largely futile°hard word.
- the computers are generally pretty good at knowing which team is better. for the men°hard word, https://kenpom.com/ is a good baseline°hard word rating.
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other notes:
- actually having watched the teams play can help to know how good they are
- if there is a "good story" that isn't°hard word too unlikely°hard word, pick into it
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for the women's°hard word pool°hard word:
- seed differences°hard word mean more here. only a 1-seed difference°hard word is a pick-em°hard word, and a 4-seed difference°hard word is enough for 75-25 odds.
- picking all of the 1 and 2 seeds to reach the round of 8 is far more likely to be successful°hard word for the women's°hard word bracket°hard word