🔥 it's only February ...
💡 yes, but in what year?
today i am looking for a different kind of joy. not food nor drink (or drink). not sex nor drugs°hard word. not intellectual°hard word activity°hard word nor physical activity°hard word.
and not the joy of an old man, resting on his laurels°hard word, content°hard word to sit and watch as the world°hard word passes him by.
🌎 spins°hard word the wheel of topics°hard word, and finds ...
It's official°hard word: prediction°hard word markets have been tried, and are a failed°hard word idea.
Unfortunately°hard word, the reasons they are failed°hard word cannot be broadcast°hard word. So I must lament°hard word from afar°hard word.
To start with, they can't break EMBARGO°hard word.
⚔️ well, actually, they can break EMBARGO°hard word. but they will be punished°hard word for doing°hard word so.
They are, also, predictably°hard word wrong. For a few main reasons.
They simply don't work for predicting°hard word events with a 1% chance. The monetary°hard word incentives°hard word don't work.
The monetary°hard word incentives°hard word don't work for 50-50 events, either. The "profits" meant to encourage°hard word participation°hard word come from other participants°hard word, who will filter°hard word out. Soon, it is a game of "who can beat the suckers°hard word", not "who can create correct predictions°hard word".
They don't ask the right questions. This is, partially°hard word, a way to maintain°hard word EMBARGO°hard word compliance°hard word.
What you are left with ... is an unregulated°hard word sports book. With attractive°hard word nuisance°hard word markets on politics°hard word and global°hard word affairs°hard word that are broken-by-default°hard word.
And a lot of trolling°hard word. Which shalt°hard word not be repeated°hard word here.