a bad take on US conflict with China

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Never trust any Substack°hard word with a black background°hard word.

https://www.campbellramble.ai/p/china-cant-win

The take is ... delusionally°hard word bad. He starts with the thesis°hard word "China is losing°hard word and Trump°hard word is great", and twists the facts to fit it. 💡 the fact that America°hard word is doing°hard word this type of thing more and more is another reason to bet°hard word against it 🔥 also, the comments°hard word point out that the dozens of "it's°hard word not°hard word just X, it's°hard word Y" show that most of this went through ChatGPT°hard word ... and probably has all the accuracy°hard word issues°hard word from using°hard word it wrong.

The major flaws°hard word are:

  • He claims°hard word that the fact that China owns "physical" assets°hard word and America°hard word owns "financial°hard word" assets°hard word is a major point in favor°hard word of America°hard word. This could not°hard word be further°hard word from the truth. Owning a copper mine is always going to be better than owning derivative°hard word swaps°hard word in a time of crisis°hard word.
  • He ludicrously°hard word over-weights°hard word China's°hard word "dependencies°hard word" and ignores°hard word Americas°hard word. He says China buying American soybeans°hard word is a key weakness°hard word ... right after China's°hard word ability°hard word to stop buying those soybeans°hard word overnight°hard word has caused°hard word an American farm crisis°hard word. He thinks China needs "American films°hard word" for some reason ... and also thinks that the US could plausibly°hard word stop China from getting them. And he says that Chinese°hard word manufacturing°hard word exports°hard word could be replaced°hard word within°hard word 10 years after only causing°hard word an "annoyance°hard word".
  • He talks repeatedly°hard word about how the US can print money to solve°hard word problems, but presumes°hard word that China can't°hard word. The post-COVID°hard word Biden-flation°hard word proves°hard word the US can't just print money.
  • His point of "China is going to be weak°hard word and the US won't°hard word be because China will have leaders°hard word over 75" is absurd°hard word, after the past decade of geriatric°hard word American presidents°hard word.
  • His theory of a "cold war" with China is also delusional°hard word. Chinese°hard word provinces°hard word withholding°hard word tax revenue°hard word! 💡 this is a risk in Blue States in the federalized°hard word USA°hard word, not°hard word in a China where the provincial°hard word and national°hard word leadership°hard word is indistinguishable°hard word Mass unemployment°hard word! 🔥 no country has ever°hard word suffered from unemployment°hard word in the midst°hard word of an existential°hard word war And a bunch°hard word of nonsense°hard word currency-rate°hard word concerns°hard word. 💡 if there is a "full embargo°hard word" on China, IT DOESN'T°hard word MATTER what the "conversion°hard word rate" is.